The Vikings, long in need of offensive linemen, selected Ed Ingram in the second round of the NFL Draft in the hope that he could be their long-term solution at guard. Minnesota’s moves up and down the draft board were perhaps a bit too familiar for some fans, but they did end up with a player at a position in need of improvement for over a decade.
The decision doesn’t sit well with fans for a number of reasons, most of them regarding alleged off-field behavior and the Vikings’ response to those concerns. The allegations against Ingram are graphic and disturbing, while the Vikings leadership has been inadequate in addressing those concerns.
The Vikings drafted Ingram for a reason, however: to improve the team. Let’s explore Ingram’s analytics and film to gain a better understanding of the team’s decision to select him — ranked 101st on the Consensus Big Board — 59th overall. Perhaps we can figure out why the Vikings felt he was worth the risk.
We can start with Ingram’s overall athleticism. Offensive linemen in zone-blocking systems tend to be more athletic than those in other systems, so this will be particularly important for Ingram.
Here, however, Ingram only scores high in the measurements coming out of the 40-yard dash. As a reminder, all of the scores in the chart above are adjusted for a player’s height and weight, so Ingram — who weighed 307 pounds at the NFL combine — did have a good raw score in the 10-yard split, but it wasn’t as impressive after accounting for the fact that he weighed less than most guards when they perform their workouts.
While 20-yard splits do correlate with high performance at guard, the more important workouts — short shuttle and explosion — point to a player without the athletic baseline to be successful at the position. In fact, a composite athletic score weighted by each workout’s relative ability to predict performance places Ingram as the third-worst athlete at the position among drafted guards, just behind North Dakota State’s Cordell Volson and Kentucky’s Darian Kinnard, both of whom were drafted on Day 3.
At the other end of the spectrum, first-round players like Cole Strange of Tennessee-Chattanooga and Zion Johnson of Boston College scored at the top of their class (first and third, respectively), with fourth-round pick Zach Tom of Wake Forest ranking second. The Packers drafted the fourth-ranked player, Sean Rhyan of UCLA, 92nd overall.
Athleticism scores do not define an offensive lineman’s career, of course. Dion Dawkins and Ryan Kelly scored poorly, for example, while Matt Kalil and Will Hernandez scored well. But more often than not, good athletic scores tend to coincide with performance at or above a player’s expectation based on their draft position. Players like Tristan Wirfs, Quenton Nelson and Joel Bitonio were among the top testers in their class, and steals like Mitch Morse and Mark Glowinski were high-level testers, too. Disappointments like Xavier Su’a-Filo and Pat Elflein were poor testers for their position, even though they were lauded for their athleticism coming out.
The Vikings might point out that the model of offensive lineman they pursue for their system doesn’t match the popular conception of the zone-blocking lineman, which is typically quick and light. But looking at offensive linemen drafted by McVay disciples — including Matt LaFleur of the Packers, Zac Taylor of the Bengals and McVay himself — we don’t see many players drafted with below-average athletic scores. The only four with below-average scores who also performed enough workouts to receive a score — David Edwards, Hakeem Adeniji, Trey Hill and Volson — were all drafted on Day 3.
On the other hand, the Packers, Bengals and Rams did draft super-athletes like Bobby Evans, Elgton Jenkins, Tom and Rhyan. Other zone-running teams, like the Bears and Browns, have found success targeting players like James Daniels and Bitonio.
The Vikings, for what it’s worth, believe that Ingram moves well for his size and can play at a high level in every blocking scheme. Moreover, they think that “unicorns” with the ability to do both are pretty rare. But his athletic testing suggests average-level performance as a zone blocker and well-below-average performance as a drive blocker, with worrisome scores in explosion testing and average scores in the agility drills.
What matters more than his performance in workouts, of course, is his performance on the field. As a player, Ingram has been part of some fantastic LSU performances, playing on the offensive line that led the way for a record-setting offense and a national championship with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
But as a pass protector and run blocker, he’s been closer to all right than stellar.
The right side of the circle showcases Ingram’s pass-protection performance while the left side focuses on his run-blocking ability. In this case, a bigger slice is better, so that first slice suggests that he was above average in preventing quarterback pressure compared to his peers in the draft class and even better when accounting for the fact that LSU had to deal with an above-average pressure environment.
Sports Info Solutions has a “blown-block rate” for both the passing and running game, while both SIS and Pro Football Focus have passing-game grades that give Ingram a score for how he did after accounting for all contextual factors.
Ingram is an above-average player here, though one would expect slightly better for his draft position. First-round pick Kenyon Green ended up with a slightly worse set of scores as a pass protector, but first-round picks Johnson and Strange, second-rounder Luke Goedeke and third-rounder Dylan Parham all outperformed him.
As a run-blocker, Ingram comes in well behind his peers. The rate of runs to his gap where the runner ends up bouncing to another gap is higher than other Day 1 and 2 picks, while the rate of positive running plays to his gap is lower than his peers. His blown-block rate on runs is fairly high for a pick outside of Day 3 as well, and his overall run-blocking scores on PFF and SIS are well below those of his peers. The Vikings like his run-game versatility, but it could be more that he does just enough in every facet of the running game than he excels in every facet.
Overall, this suggests a below-average athlete with average pass-protection skills and below-average run-blocking skills. That doesn’t scream second-round guard, and it would require a very generous film grade to overcome.
As the 101st-ranked player on the Consensus Big Board, the Vikings went against the balance of NFL draft experts to draft Ingram where they did. Some had him ranked fairly high, however. Tyler Browning of Blue Chip Scouting, Keith Sanchez of the Draft Network and Charlie Campbell of Walter Football all ranked Ingram higher than where the Vikings took him, placing him 43rd, 48th and 48th, respectively.
Browning lauded Ingram’s awareness on the field, his ability to move in space and the overall flexibility he displays when opening or closing his base. Sanchez described Ingram as “a strong, powerful run blocker that can move defensive linemen off the line of scrimmage.” He continued, suggesting Ingram “has the athleticism to become an effective pulling guard in power run schemes,” and is a player with “a high-level football IQ in his pass sets that allows him to correctly pick up stunts and blitzing second-level defenders.” Finally, he added that “Ingram is a multi-talented offensive lineman that has all of the athletic traits to become an immediate starter in the NFL.”
It’s also important context to add that Sanchez was a part of LSU’s personnel department at the same time Ingram was there, including during the 2019 championship run. This might mean he knows more than anyone else about Ingram, but it could also mean his relationship with the program colors his evaluation.
Campbell appreciated Ingram’s finishing ability and thinks he has upside as a run blocker, saying he “has heavy hands with sheer power at the point of attack to generate movement. Ingram can get under a defensive tackle’s pads and use his strength to manipulate them out of their gap.” Comparing Ingram to former Pro Bowl guard Richie Incognito, Campbell thinks that there’s high-level upside with the former LSU guard.
No one was lower on Ingram, however, than ESPN’s Mel Kiper, who ranked him 183rd. On ESPN’s broadcast, Kiper argued that Ingram didn’t have the Pro Bowl potential of other available guards. “I think he can be a solid starter,” Kiper said. “But he’s got to be, I think, coached up from an offensive line standpoint … and get those fundamentals to stay consistent.” He concluded in his post-draft grades that the Vikings reached on Ingram and that Ingram’s strength and mobility profiled as a Day 3 pick.
Joining Kiper were Pro Football Focus, Chris Trapasso at CBS Sports and Lance Zeirlein at NFL.com, ranking him 136th, 136th and 140th overall, respectively. PFF argued that Ingram did well as a freshman, but “struggled as a rotational player at left guard during LSU’s championship season. He’s been a full-time starter ever since, but he’s never quite been able to build upon that promise he showed early on.” Their concerns about his hand usage, contact balance and career progression drive their draft grade. Trapasso shares those concerns.
Zierlein’s fifth-round projection for Ingram is harsh but comes through in his overall evaluation. He echoes other detractors, saying that “Ingram’s run blocking is a notch below his pass protection and might not be an area where he improves enough as a pro. He lacks prototypical girth and bend for leverage and power at the point of attack, and his motor to sustain blocks is inconsistent.”
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler is closer to the industry average on Ingram, placing him 114th overall. Brugler likes Ingram’s strength and demeanor and closes out his scouting report by saying that “Ingram needs to clean up his leaning and hand mechanics, but he has the explosive upper body, strong base and competitive temperament to match up with defensive interior linemen at the next level. He is scheme-versatile and looks like a future NFL starter.”
The Vikings are particularly enamored with Ingram’s awareness on the field. One example comes in LSU’s game against Alabama, where Ingram picked up on a well-executed tackle-end stunt.
Ingram is No. 70, playing left guard, and focuses on No. 50 from Alabama, Tim Smith, as he sets to attack Ingram’s inside shoulder. That forces Ingram to widen the gap between him and left tackle Cameron Wire. Alabama’s Dallas Turner, No. 15, then attempts to take advantage of that space and cut in while Smith loops around to the outside.
Early in the process, Ingram snaps his eyes over to Turner, knowing that a defensive tackle crossing back across his face likely means some sort of twist or stunt. He immediately passes Smith off to Wire and takes on Turner, protecting the pocket for his quarterback.
There are examples of this kind of awareness throughout Ingram’s film, and it’s clearly a strength of his. He does a good job of picking his targets and figuring out how to deal with different rush plans, and he has an intuition for understanding his opponent’s balance.
In the above example, Washington second-round pick Phidarian Mathis, No. 48, attempts to get Ingram off balance by pulling him down to the right and coming back to his left over a falling Ingram. Ingram reads this despite being late to get his hands on target, hitting Mathis in the numbers. Ingram maintains his grip on Mathis and begins redirecting his force outward and taking Mathis to the ground.
This isn’t ideal, as it’s a running play and back Armani Goodwin has to change directions for a minimal gain, but the bigger issue is right guard Chasen Hines, who is driven back by Alabama’s Smith.
That said, Ingram doesn’t always play with proper balance and can get caught leaning when his opponent invites the first strike.
This can hit him particularly hard in space.
The biggest concern with Ingram will be his anchor, given his size and poor explosion numbers. On obvious passing downs, this becomes more of an issue — he plays taller in his pass sets when on third-and-long, and his opponents can get under him and drive him into the quarterback.
This problem doesn’t pop up nearly as often as it has for other Vikings interior offensive linemen: For example, both Elflein and Garrett Bradbury had significantly more trouble dealing with power. Ingram’s issue has more to do with needing perfect leverage from down to down. If he sets low, he’s rarely bowled over or walked back.
Other film analysts see Ingram as having significant upper- and lower-body strength, too. The biggest issue for analysts is separating Ingram’s instinct to drive and finish — his feet are always moving — from his natural strength and power. One can be confused with the other, and there aren’t a lot of examples of him exploding through his hips into a defensive lineman to move him several yards downfield without some form of help, either a double-team or the defender’s own momentum.
He does demonstrate upper-body strength, however. Against pass-rushing tackles, blitzers and looping edge defenders, his first punch can stun and redirect force. That doesn’t quite show up against run-defending nose tackles, but he showcases more strength there than many guards in the draft. His grip strength is notable, too. When he grabs on, he’s unlikely to let go.
That said, he’s not the complete package. His core strength isn’t always present, and he can’t torque or control a defender that he’s latched onto, allowing them to dictate which gap they flash into. That will limit his run-blocking upside and can allow defenders to influence the running play even without pushing Ingram back into the gap.
There are some other areas where Ingram’s instincts and techniques are well-refined. He consistently keeps himself square to the line of scrimmage and does a good job of timing his disengagement from double teams in both the running and passing game. He was certainly a brighter spot from an awareness perspective than either Hines or Wire. His movement skills are better than his agility testing indicates, and he can get moving as a puller or second-level blocker.
On the other hand, his 10-yard split overstates his ability to explode. Sometimes it’s a timing issue and he’s a bit late off the snap, but other times it’s just an athletic issue. His first step doesn’t have the range of first-rounders Strange and Johnson, and it will look out of place next to Bradbury and Brian O’Neill. He can swing his second foot in with good speed to make up for it, but it will create positioning issues for him.
As a pass protector, his instincts will save the Vikings from time to time, but his balance, lunging and lack of lower-body strength will continue to create problems. That said, it shouldn’t be as big of an issue as his performance in the running game, where he looks like he could struggle out of the gate.
Overall, the data we have on Ingram, both subjective and quantifiable, tells us that he’s more like a fourth-round pick than a second-round pick, though he could be ready to start sooner than most mid-round picks. The Vikings disagree and think his footwork is excellent, and it takes a lot of conviction to disagree with the crowd so forcefully.
And none of this analysis takes into account any potential discounting the Vikings could (or perhaps should) have done for the issues in his background, but it’s one reason analysts dropped him further down their boards.
If the Vikings are right, they’ll have resolved a problem they’ve been trying to fix since the Favre era ended over a decade ago. If they’re wrong, they’ll have taken a massive reputational risk on a player who the underlying data tells us is average at best.
(Photo: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)